Word: hellers
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...innocent. The innocent who confounds authority, the sophistry of law and the mindless brutalities of bureaucracy with sheer simplicity and obdurate truth. In the endless flux of empires, ideologies and wars, he is the irreducible survivor. Such a one was Voltaire's Candide, Cervantes' Sancho Panza, Joseph Heller's Yossarian-and Jaroslav HaŠek's Good Soldier Švejk...
Recession is a dirty word to politicians and one that even economists use with some trepidation, partly because it is difficult to define precisely (see box next page). Nonetheless, five of the nine members of TIME'S Board of Economists -Otto Eckstein, Walter Heller, Robert Nathan, Arthur Okun and Joseph Pechman-declare that the U.S. economy is heading into a recession, one that cannot be blamed only on the direct effects of the fuel shortage...
...gasoline shortage has seriously weakened consumer demand for cars; for housing, especially in distant suburbs; and for the merchandise sold by suburban stores that are reachable only by auto. So, they argue, the slump is taking on the characteristics of an old-fashioned recession caused mainly by inadequate buying. Heller and Okun fear that oil and gasoline price jumps will divert by $15 billion to $20 billion the amount of money that consumers have to spend for nonpetroleum products...
...will be less than the thoroughly disruptive 3.4 million bbl. per day originally anticipated. Still, the jittery psychological climate created by the threat has enabled oil-exporting countries to raise their prices to towering new levels, and that will further fuel raging inflation in all industrialized nations. Says Walter Heller, a member of TIME'S Board of Economists and chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Presidents Kennedy and Johnson: "The economy in 1974 will be terribly sensitive to things we don't know much about...
...Robert Nathan, a private consultant, believes that they will advance 7% or more, up 2 percentage points from his previous forecast. The reason: shortages of not only oil but also such essential petroleum-based products as plastics, synthetic fibers and fertilizer. The University of Minnesota's Walter W. Heller agrees that the petroleum squeeze alone will add 1% or more to inflation, but he pegs the consumer-price increases at 6% to 7% in the first half of 1974, dropping to 5% to 6% in the second half-if the boycott ends in three months or so. Eckstein fixes...