Word: hellers
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...economists generally agree that U.S. business is coming out of its long downturn-but how quickly is it likely to bounce back? TIME editors posed that question last week to the eight experts on the magazine's Board of Economists (see box). Their answers were remarkably similar. Walter Heller summed up: "The U.S. is beginning a long, slow climb back to full employment." The outlook, he said, is for "progress, but stagnancy." All the other members of the board basically concur. They foresee only small rises in production and profits next year, and predict a gradual lessening of inflation...
Pent-up demand for housing, combined with cheaper and easier credit, will spur more building. Heller predicts an increase in housing starts to an annual rate of 1,700,000 in early 1971, up from 1,430,000 in August. Defense spending will continue to fall, and apart from the special case of steel, manufacturers will not rebuild inventories as swiftly as in past recoveries because they did not cut stockpiles much during the recent downturn...
Game Plan at Half Time. In a paper prepared for the Senate Democratic Policy Committee, Arthur Okun, Gardner Ackley and Walter Heller, all former Chairmen of the Council of Economic Advisers, predicted that the auto increase could make "dismal reading" out of October price figures. Even that paper, however, conceded that inflation "at last shows signs of ebbing." The business slowdown engineered by the Nixon Administration has clearly wrung much excess demand out of the economy...
...High the Cost? Most Democratic critics no longer question whether Nixon's policies are capable of slowing inflation. Instead, the Ackley-Heller-Okun paper concentrates its arguments around the theme that whatever the game plan has achieved has come much too late, with much too high a cost in production, jobs, income and investment in future growth. These economists contend that presidential guidelines on wage-price increases would have achieved success sooner and that, in order to revive the economy, the Government can afford now to spend more and expand the money supply even faster. Nixon men retort that...
...their "game plan" of controlling inflation without a sharp recession. "Encouraging" was the word that Chief Economic Adviser Paul McCracken used over and over in talking to the press after a meeting between Nixon and his economic-policy quadriad at the Western White House in San Clemente. Even Walter Heller, former head of the Council of Economic Advisers, speaking at week's end to a Texas seminar organized by his old boss, Lyndon Johnson, conceded that "the worst is over." Heller added a cautionary note: "Consumers must be perked up for a fairly strong economic rebound" to occur...