Word: herded
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Instead, say Leamer and other bubbleologists, what's driving the market is low interest rates, herd psychology, speculation and the expectation of unending price increases. (One study found that Los Angeles homeowners expect their home values to grow 22% every year for a decade.) Meanwhile, promiscuous lenders are throwing money at buyers like beads during Mardi Gras. "Anybody who can crawl in off the street can get a loan with 0% down at three or four times their income," Leamer says...
...These days, as usual, Wadhwaney thinks the herd is heading in the wrong direction. For example, although he grew up in Bombay, the center of India's boom, his fund doesn't own a single Indian stock. "People are paying ridiculous prices on promises of the future," he says. As Wadhwaney sees it, "the future is an imponderable. Most people's prognostications are a very poor use of time." Nobody can reliably predict which way the stock market will move or what a company's earnings will be, he argues, so the key is to focus on the present, appraising...
...eventually causing authorities to issue warnings to the surrounding population while quietly preparing contingency plans to avoid a calamity. Maps plotting the likely course of last week's disaster had been completed only four or five weeks ago. But the next steps had not been taken. Said Darrell Herd, deputy chief of the Reston, Va.-based Office of Earthquakes, Volcanos and Engineering at the U.S. Geological Survey: "The volcano erupted too soon...
According to Herd, of the U.S. Geological Survey, the Colombians had begun to take precautions when the cataclysm struck. Authorities had established three separate teams of experts to address the volcanic threat: one to monitor the development of the hazard, another to gather information about the likely outcome of an eruption and a third to formulate an emergency plan. As part of that response, the Colombians had produced the so-called hazard maps that so accurately laid out the path of the looming disaster...
...Said Herd, who wrote his doctoral dissertation on the Nevado del Ruiz volcano: "The Colombians were sincerely trying to respond to the hazard." Agreed Luis Eduardo Jaramillo, an INGEOMINAS spokesman: "We warned the people living in the area that something could happen. We gave them instructions about what to do if it blew up." Yet in their report the Italians criticized the Colombian precautions as "absolutely inadequate...