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Forecasting is an art that still has few textbooks. Its basic tool is extrapolation from yesterday and today. As John McHale, executive director of World Resources Inventory, puts it: "The future of the future is in the present." Some other methods seem fairly arcane. Defense Expert Herman Kahn, for instance, uses "scenario writing," in which various alternative future situations are dramatized. Some forecasters use computers to produce a symbolic "model" of particular social or economic structures-including whole industries or nations-and then simulate the interaction of variables. Rand uses the "Delphi" method, in which a wide range of experts...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Essay: THE FUTURISTS: Looking Toward A.D. 2000 | 2/25/1966 | See Source »

...Dame's Father Theodore Hesburgh and Michigan State's John Hannah discovered that Princeton's Robert Goheen and Cornell's James Perkins had just left, after checking up on the use of U.S. foreign-aid funds. While there, they met Indiana's ex-president, Herman Wells, back from an advisory mission to Bangkok...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Education: The Extracurricular Clout Of Powerful College Presidents | 2/11/1966 | See Source »

...brains behind The Boys undoubtedly believe that the movie reflects changing tastes, but they seem to confuse updating with downgrading. In front of a camera that sits paralyzed with embarrassment most of the time, Louis Armstrong, Liberace, Herman's Hermits and other specialty acts struggle gamely to stay cool. It is Armstrong's ironic duty to appear at the fadeout, rumbling in song, ". . . who could ask for anything more...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Cinema: Updated & Downgraded | 1/21/1966 | See Source »

Besides Desist, seven other men and women were arrested, including Chief Warrant Officer Herman Conder, 35, who was recently transferred from Orléans to Fort Benning, Ga.; Frankie Dio, 48, operator of a Miami Beach nightclub and younger brother of Brooklyn Mobster Johnny Dio; and Jean Nebbia, 52, and Jean-Claude Le Franc, 50, both leading figures in France's Mafia-backed dope-smuggling fraternity...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Crime: Stupefying Sam | 12/31/1965 | See Source »

...still the Beatles on top, with their innumerable shaggy imitators from the Rolling Stones to Herman's Hermits to the Pharaohs. On the whole, the music was improved, the lyrics slightly more comprehensible. With Bob Dylan, rock also blossomed into a hybrid called folk-rock, but folk itself stayed with its perennial purist, Joan Baez (Farewell, Angelina) and the young American Indian Composer Buffy Sainte-Marie, who as a singer is a sort of Cree Callas, with more conviction than voice...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Essay: THE YEARS BEST, OR, THERE IS ROOM AT THE TOP | 12/31/1965 | See Source »

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