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...market watchers have found a new thing to worry about: rising interest rates. The yield on the government's 10-year Treasury bond is up 65% this year to a recent 3.83%. Says top Wall Street strategist Edward Yardeni, "If bond yields get up to 4.5%, so not much higher than they are now, I think we would see a real decline in mortgage refinancing, which would threaten the viability of the economic recovery." (Read "Economic Recovery: Will Corporate Profits Recoup...
...Yardeni and others are worried that higher interest rates could push housing prices lower, and hurt banking profits. What's more, rising rates could indicate that inflation, which has largely disappeared in the recession, is coming back. To be sure, the increase in borrowing costs has already slowed home-loan-refinance activity, but it is unlikely to do much else to damage the economic recovery. (See pictures of the housing crisis...
...whether now is a good time again to buy a house, which is what really drives real estate prices. A 2006 study of mortgage rates and New York City housing prices going back to 1975 by Lucas Finco of Quadlet Consulting found no correlation between lower mortgage rates and higher housing prices, or vice versa. In fact, some think a modest rise in interest rates could be good for housing demand. "For the fence sitters, rising interest rates could be the motivation they need to buy," says Steven Wieting, Citigroup's US economist...
...while foreclosures are certainly bad for banks, higher interest rates alone aren't. It is not the level of interest rates that matters to bank bottom lines, but the difference between short-term rates and long-term rates. Banks make money when they can borrow money on a short-term basis - think about your deposits - at little costs and lend it out on a longer-term basis - your mortgage - at a higher rate. That's what economists call the yield curve. And the steepness of the curve, which is the difference between short-term rates and long-term rates...
...What's more, despite higher government-bond yields, corporations are actually paying less to borrow than they did a few months ago. As the credit crisis continues to ease, those rates could come down even further, making it cheaper for companies to borrow and expand their businesses. According to Credit Suisse, the average yield on bonds with an investment-grade rating has dropped a full percentage point to 6.2% from 7.2% at the beginning of the year. "The concern that higher interest rates will slow the recovery is prevalent among a lot of market watchers...