Word: hiromichi
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...while industrial output in the world's second-largest economy jumped 5.9% in May - the third consecutive month-to-month increase - output remains down nearly 30% compared with May, 2008. "Currently, the recovery is boosted by global destocking and the government economic-stimulus measures," says Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo. "If [those] fade away, it's possible for the [economy] to go down again." (See 10 things to do in Tokyo...
...spending. But DPJ politicians - smelling blood in anticipation of general elections, which must be held by September but could come before then - might choose to take advantage of Aso's weakness by blocking passage of additional stimulus measures, no matter how pressing the need, says Credit Suisse chief economist Hiromichi Shirakawa. DPJ politicians "can now argue that the government has already lost their ability to get back on a path to recovery," Shirakawa says. "I think the messy situation could get messier...
...coincided with the briefing that announced the invitation that Clinton extended to Aso to be the first foreign leader to visit the White House under President Barack Obama's administration. "The opposition party is looking to make an opportunity out of this big mistake," says Credit Suisse chief economist Hiromichi Shirakawa. Shirakawa says that if there were economic implications of Nakagawa's resignation, they might be that the DPJ would "push the reset button" on Aso's pending budget proposal, which includes an unpopular hand out of $21.7 billion to the Japanese public. The opposition Democratic Party of Japan...
...Operation and Development (OECD) projects that 2009 GDP will grow 0.1% in Japan, compared with 0.9% in the U.S. and 0.5% across the Eurozone. "Financial-debt-to-GDP ratio is an advantage, and debt in the private sector has not increased, unlike in the U.S. and European countries," says Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse Japan. "The economy is less vulnerable." Nevertheless, he says, Japan is not an island: nothing points to an economic recovery in Japan unless the global economy picks up. According to Andreas Schuster, head of research at CLSA, a private-equity firm based in Hong...
...Analysts in Japan say the U.S. faces a similar situation today. The Fed's recent rate cut "is better than doing nothing, but it will unlikely work so much as it did in the past," says Masaaki Kanno, chief economist at JPMorgan Securities in Tokyo. Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo, believes that the Fed may bring its rates down to zero by the middle of 2009, as the U.S. economy slows in coming quarters. "Will it be effective or stimulative? My answer is not necessarily so," he says...