Word: hizballah
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...could take weeks or even months for an international force to be deployed in anything more than symbolic numbers - and it will formally take possession of the areas vacated by withdrawing Israeli forces. But the Lebanese Army, whose forces in the south have traditionally been on good terms with Hizballah, and whose fighting forces are almost half Shi'ite, is unlikely to try and forcibly disarm Hizballah. France - which is slated to lead the U.N. force and be its major troop-contributor with some 5,000 men - has said the same thing...
...Although Hizballah will now have to cede control of the border area, and has suffered the loss of an indeterminate number of fighters and missiles, it nonetheless lives (potentially) to fight another day, and to dictate the terms on which it will observe the truce. The Lebanese government doesn't appear to have much enthusiasm for confronting Hizballah on the disarmament issue, mindful of the fact that the group has emerged politically stronger than ever, particularly among its Shi'ite base, and seeking a showdown over disarmament could provoke another ruinous civil...
...Hizballah, moreover, appears concerned about avoiding civil strife and the collapse of a government in which it retains substantial influence. It may actually welcome a respite from war to cement its relationship with its battered base by focusing on welfare and reconstruction work - and, of course, to prepare its forces for the next battle...
...from the desired backlash hoped for by the Israelis, the bombing instead generated intractable hostility from within traditionally anti-Hizballah sectors of the Lebanese population. What's more, that sentiment is not only directed toward Israel, but also toward the United States, whose opposition to a cease-fire was taken as enabling the destruction of all of Lebanon. The Lebanese government, in which the U.S. had pinned so much hope, will likely emerge from the war considerably cooler toward Washington and its vision of a "New Middle East...
...exactly resonated with Israelis. His poll numbers are low, and a cloud hangs over his government's long-term prospects. It's abundantly clear to Israelis that an exercise designed to demonstrate the brutal efficiency of Israel's military deterrent against violent challenges has accomplished much the opposite, with Hizballah's performance emboldening Israel's enemies - from Gaza to Tehran...