Word: hizballah
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Three years hence, this analysis seems borne out by London. Not only was the attack moving toward execution as Israel and Hizballah ignited the Middle East, but 10 planes exploding over the Atlantic or in U.S. airspace would indeed have created what U.S. experts believe our jihadist opponents desire: an upward arc of terror and dread between a second-wave attack and whatever might follow, five or even 10 years down the road...
...Shavit's, the judgment of Olmert's leadership by Israelis across the political spectrum may not be much more forgiving. A prime minister dependent on a diverse coalition to keep him in power may have been turned into a lame duck by the indecisive outcome of the clash with Hizballah...
...Shavit, writing in the left-of-center daily Haaretz on Friday, offered a savage critique of Olmert accepting a truce while failing to finish off Hizballah: "If Olmert runs away now from the war he initiated, he will not be able to remain prime minister for even one more day," wrote Shavit. "You cannot lead an entire nation to war promising victory, produce humiliating defeat and remain in power. You cannot bury 120 Israelis in cemeteries, keep a million Israelis in shelters for a month, wear down deterrent power, bring the next war very close, and then say - oops...
...Hizballah, for its part, has achieved the "victory" of surviving the Israeli onslaught, and has burnished its standing in the Arab world by its ability to land painful blows on Israel. That will spur it to seek the last word and deny Israel's efforts to shape perceptions of the outcome. Nasrallah on Saturday accepted the cease-fire plan despite reservations, but made clear that his men will keep fighting Israeli forces that remain on Lebanese soil even if they ceases rocket fire into Israel. The Israelis want the closing image of the war to show their forces taking control...
...Still, whatever the final image, Hizballah will have lost substantial ground militarily. It will be forced to cede control of southern Lebanon to the Lebanese Army, which it had previously resisted, and will have seen much of its capability to strike Israel with missiles neutered. The political path ahead remains perilous for a movement now forced to choose between its identity as an anti-Israel resistance and as a Lebanese political party and social movement. Although Hizballah won't put down its weapons immediately, the pressure to do so - or, at least, to put them under the control...