Word: hizballah
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...boxing terms, Israel's war with Hizballah is heading for a draw. The U.N. Security Council cease-fire proposal has sounded the bell for the last round, with the combatants having hurt each other, but never landing a decisive blow - or appearing likely to. The remainder of the bout will see a flurry of punches thrown by both fighters in the hope of persuading the judges to award a victory on points...
...clash. It envisages an immediate cessation of hostilities, followed by a phased Israeli withdrawal with Lebanese Army troops, backed by a dramatically upgraded U.N. force, taking control of areas vacated by the Israelis. Southern Lebanon below the Litani River would become demilitarized, although the resolution does not specifically stipulate Hizballah disarmament, it does call for an arms embargo that would help facilitate that long-standing U.N. demand. Hizballah loses control of southern Lebanon and, eventually, its profile as a resistance army. But Hizballah's military arm remains alive and kicking after an onslaught aimed at reaffirming Israel's deterrent power...
...Claiming victory may be harder for the Israeli leadership, which initially defined success by the image of Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah either dead or crying for mercy, his army and its rockets scattered to the four winds. Instead, Israeli leaders now have to convince their increasingly skeptical citizens that the war has been won. It's hardly surprising, then, that Israel is using the interlude before the truce takes effect - Israeli officials are reported as saying that moment will come at 7am on Monday - to drive deep into Lebanon to draw whatever blood and teeth as they can from Hizballah...
...major thrust 14 miles north to the Litani river and beyond, as envisioned by Halutz and the other generals, could drag on for another six weeks and leave hundreds of Israeli soldiers dead. Worst of all, the generals told Olmert that they could only guarantee taking out "70%" of Hizballah's rocket capacity. A cease-fire suddenly started looking good. On Thursday Olmert had decided to wait several days for a U.N. resolution, despite his generals' urgings to roll the tanks, but a day later he seemed to have changed his mind once again...
...cease-fire starts, both sides will surely claim victory. Nasrallah will declare himself a new champion of the Arab world for having survived the Israeli onslaught and terrorized 1.5 million Israelis with his blindly flung rockets. (In Palestine's West Bank, recordings of his speeches and ballads of Hizballah warriors are hot sellers.) The Israelis can argue they pushed back Hizballah from the border, killed hundreds of their fighters and replaced enemy militiamen along the border with regular Lebanese army troops and tough international forces. Israel may even be able to exchange its own Lebanese and Palestinian prisoners...