Word: hizballah
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...Israel can't bring Hizballah down, could foreign forces help squeeze it into better behavior? Potential donors to a multinational force will be trying to hash out a plan this week. But its composition, mission and rules of engagement are acutely tricky. Rice declared that no U.S. troops would join; they're already overstretched in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. French President Jacques Chirac said he might be willing to commit French forces, but not through NATO. Soldiers from Muslim countries like Turkey and Egypt would be a plus, but so far none have materialized...
...harder question is what the force would do after deployment. The U.S. view is that it should keep Hizballah fighters and weapons out of a strip near the Israeli border and help Lebanon's army take a greater role there. According to Lebanese officials, Rice has suggested rules of engagement allowing its soldiers, who may number up to 20,000, to shoot back but not to go door to door looking for Hizballah. That reflects a realistic appreciation that foreign soldiers could not possibly disarm the group throughout the country and could become enmeshed in a nasty war if they...
...outside force can pacify Hizballah, what's the chance it will choose to restrain itself? Fighting Israel is the core of its politics, key not only to its self-definition but also to the arms, money and backing it gets from Syria and Iran and the support it gets inside Lebanon and elsewhere in the Arab world. "There's not enough money in the world for them to disarm, because it means giving up their major philosophy," says Miller. As part of efforts to normalize Lebanon earlier this year, Hizballah was engaging in a national dialogue with other parties...
Indirect pressure is another tack to try, but in this case, neither Iran, which supplies Hizballah's weapons, nor Syria, which transships them into Lebanon, is very susceptible to urging. Iran already faces the possibility of sanctions from the U.N. Security Council over its nuclear program and may well be grateful to Hizballah for diverting the attention of world powers through this major conflagration. Syria is close to being Washington's least favorite country: the U.S. has withdrawn its ambassador and permitted only low-level contacts since a U.N. report last year implicated top Syrian officials in the 2005 assassination...
...Hizballah can't be forced or pressured to change its ways, what's left? The answer is as old as diplomacy. In addition to sticks, it can be offered some carrots--and that's what appears to be happening. The U.S., working with European and moderate Arab countries, is trying to assemble a package of proposals acceptable to the Lebanese and Israeli governments. It includes a cease-fire, the deployment of foreign troops to Hizballah's traditional stomping grounds on the Israeli border with a mandate to let the Lebanese Army extend its jurisdiction there, an end to Israeli violations...