Word: hizballah
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...most alarming aspect of the unfolding crisis in the Middle East isn't how many actors are jumping in. It's who is opting to stay out. Hamas, Hizballah and Israel are directly involved; Iran and Syria by proxy; Lebanon against its will. The U.N. is dispatching its mediators; the European Union is contemplating doing the same. But the U.S., despite colossal strategic stakes, threats to its own security, potential repercussions in Iraq, not to mention staggering loss of life, remains on the sidelines. The world's sole superpower is also its only no-show...
...engaged. The thinking is that isolation, ostracism and, if need be, sanctions are more likely to get troublesome actors to change their ways. And so the list of diplomatic outcasts only grows. Today the U.S. does not talk to Iran, Syria, Hamas, the elected Palestinian government or Hizballah. And as the violence in the region clearly shows, that has hardly been cause for moderation. President Bush once famously observed that the U.S. had sanctioned itself out of all leverage on Iran. In truth, it has worked itself out of much influence on the region...
...Iraq, regional actors have lacked a clear compass, rules of the road or a referee. Syria is being told to clean up its act in Lebanon and Iraq; Iran to drop its nuclear program and to stop meddling in its neighbor's affairs; Hamas to undergo an ideological revolution; Hizballah to disarm. All are perfectly justifiable demands, but none are being accompanied by a clear and appealing incentive for the parties' taking such actions--other, that is, than avoiding retribution if they...
...result of this diplomatic vacuum, the only factor constraining the behavior of the various parties has been their mutual fear. Israel has been worried that Hizballah might launch Katyusha rockets on Haifa, Syria that Israel might wipe out its army or regime, Hamas and Hizballah that their entire leadership could become fair game. But such apprehension always was at most a feeble restraint, because in an unregulated environment, the only thing more costly than disregarding one's fears is displaying them. In the past weeks, that last and flimsy inhibition finally gave way. The conflict no longer is about achieving...
...strategic position too is less strong than it might seem. By holding on to the West Bank and Gaza after the Six-Day War in 1967, Israel sacrificed international goodwill. Political leadership in the Islamic world, meanwhile, has shifted to religious radicals, including the founders of Hamas and Hizballah. And new forms of warfare challenge Israeli capabilities. In 1948, 1967 and 1973, Israel defeated all comers in traditional battle. But it is now fighting an asymmetrical war against small cells who hide among civilians in Gaza and southern Lebanon. It is hard to wage such a war without alienating those...