Word: hizballah
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...outside world used to the heated rhetoric of its President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran might seem eager to jump at the chance to get involved in the current conflict between Israel, Lebanon and the Iranian-backed militant group Hizballah. But in fact, with its nuclear dispute unresolved and the risk of confrontation with the U.S. still looming, Iran can ill afford to play an active role in the escalating crisis. The top leadership in Tehran is focused on settling the nuclear issue diplomatically, and fears that if the mess in Lebanon spreads, Iran's thorny negotiation track with the West could...
...vulnerability in Iraq, as well as the ability of Hizballah to make life difficult on Israel's northern border, may have emboldened Iran's leaders to play hardball in nuclear negotiations with the West. Iran's growing reach may also raise the incentives for Washington to seek a "grand bargain" with Tehran that would stabilize relations based on addressing Iran's demand for a normalization of its diplomatic status and security guarantees if it satisfactorily addresses Western concerns over its nuclear program and support for the likes of Hizballah and Hamas. (In a spurned Iranian overture to Washington...
...military experience has been to retaliate harshly in order to reestablish Israel's deterrent power. The Palestinians and the Lebanese must be made to pay a heavy price for tolerating the militants in their midst, goes the thinking, and Israel is reportedly considering a ground invasion aimed at dismantling Hizballah's military capability...
...Gaza has thus far failed to yield either the return of Corporal Shalit or an end to Palestinian rocket fire, and Hamas appears to be more popular than ever. The Israelis insist that they must erase the threat to their citizenry by taking down the leadership of Hamas and Hizballah, and that a failure to do so would simply invite further provocations. But the track record suggests that military means may be unable to accomplish that goal, and the militants know this. They are clearly betting they can withstand the Israeli offensive as the civilian casualty toll and the destruction...
...Palestinian territories, but also Washington's ability to secure a consensus over Iran and Iraq. But to the extent that this administration has distinguished itself from predecessors by its reluctance both to impose restraints on Israel and to deal with actors it deems beyond the pale, such as Hamas, Hizballah, Syria and Iran, its ability to quickly contain the crisis may be limited...