Word: hizballah
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Just how many bowling pins can Ehud Olmert juggle at once? The embattled Israeli Prime Minister is fighting off a corruption probe, negotiating prisoner swaps first with Hizballah and now Hamas, and simultaneously orchestrating indirect negotiations with Syria and direct peace talks with the Palestinian Authority. And the strain is starting to show. On Tuesday, Olmert told a parliamentary committee that an accord with the Palestinians on the future status of Jerusalem is unlikely by the end of this year, which would deny President Bush the in-principle Middle East peace agreement he hoped to achieve before leaving office...
...group-hugging in Lebanon, the real winner of the day was Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who had orchestrated the trade. He claimed the lopsided deal as legitimacy for both his decision to capture those two Israeli soldiers in the first place and his wider strategy of armed confrontation with Israel. For almost 60 years, Arabs facing Israel have had to choose between defeat and peace, but now, according to Nasrallah, the success of Hizballah's asymmetrical warfare has offered a model for all the movements in the Middle East dedicated to destroying Israel. "The essence of the region...
...everyone agrees that Hizballah's gains were worth the price paid by Lebanon. A few anti-Hizballah media outlets pointed out that the true cost of the prisoner swap should include destruction wrought by the July war: 1,200 people killed, 400,000 wounded, 1 million displaced and $15 billion in economic damage. Yet, after more than 18 months of internal political stuggles that culminated in a brief armed takeover of Beirut by Hizballah last May, the group has for now effectively ended all debate over its continued bearing of arms. It has secured a veto power in the Cabinet...
...That strategy could backfire. By embracing Hizballah's right to bear arms, the Lebanese government is now defying the U.N. resolutions that require its disarmament. And, as destructive as it was, Israel's bombardment of Lebanon in 2006 was largely limited to Hizballah strongholds in the capital and in the south. But in any future confrontation, Israel may use less restraint - and another war could be Lebanon's last...
...Hizballah seems determined to resolve the rest of its outstanding disagreements with Israel - for example, Shebba Farms and other territory still occupied by Israel but claimed by Lebanon - in a manner similar to how it settled the prisoner issue: guerrilla operations, followed by indirect negotiations. But Israel is now unlikely to make the same kind of deal with a group that sees every negotiation as a step on the road to "liberating" Jerusalem. In that light, the prisoner exchange on July 16 isn't a promising first step toward ending hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, but instead the opening...