Word: hogs
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...threat of this new influenza strain has apparently frightened consumers away from buying pork, frightened traders into selling hog futures, and frightened entire countries, such as Russia and China, into slamming their doors to pork imports from Mexico and the U.S. Also, with prices falling, there is a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy: as prices fall, food processors that buy hogs cut back on their orders because they believe they can buy hogs at even cheaper prices later on. The result: prices keep falling...
...Lean Hogs futures market on the CME is certainly the most liquid and transparent market related to the pork industry, but it can be buffeted by things other than the demand for pork. As hog prices fall, for instance, producers might take on short positions as a hedge, essentially locking in a price for their pigs before the market collapses even further. By taking on that short position, though, they are adding to the downward pressure on hog prices...
...Similarly, speculators play their own self-protection game, which can add to bearish momentum. As markets tumble, the crash becomes exacerbated by traders' stop-loss orders, which automatically initiate more selling as the price falls. In other words, as traders who had bought hog contracts at a higher price begin to lose money on their long positions, they are forced to sell them before their losses escalate. (See the top five swine...
...Another concern about panic is declining sales in industries associated with the outbreak. For instance, U.S. hog markets have been hurt recently as consumers scared about the flu are avoiding pig products. This behavior is irrational: Unlike mad cow disease, which involves prions that can stick around after death, viruses need their host to be alive and cannot survive cooking, so there’s no danger in eating cooked meat of a pig that was sick before it died. The Feds have tried to explain this to Americans and have even started calling the virus “H1N1?...
...fairly blame the pigs (indeed, the CDC has officially stopped calling the virus "swine flu," opting instead for the more hog-friendly 2009 H1N1 flu), can we blame Mexico? That charge doesn't stick either. Decades ago, numerous countries came together to develop the Global Influenza Surveillance Network (GISN), which allows epidemiological teams to spot new flu viruses as soon as they emerge and get vaccines ready in time. But the GISN only tracks human flu, meaning animal flu can slip by undetected. What's more, pigs that carry influenza tend not to die en masse the way flocks...