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...picture has changed. In some interesting recent research, the Asian-economics team at HSBC has found that domestic consumption is running ahead of exports as a source of growth in South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In Taiwan, HSBC estimates, private-consumption expenditure, which grew just 1.4% last year, will post a more respectable 3.8% growth in 2002. Moreover, construction is booming in Thailand and South Korea. Some countries - notably South Korea, whose forecast growth of more than 6% this year makes it the region's star - have introduced tax reforms to encourage consumer spending, and others...
Periods of takeovers followed by sprees of spin-offs are hardly new. M and A activity usually increases as markets and liquidity rise, while demergers often occur after things go bust. "Clearly there is quite a cyclical and fashionable element involved," says HSBC's Russell. That's partly explained by the investment banks' need to make money regardless of market performance. "If you can't do the merger, do the spin-off. In bad times, the spin-off is the easier sell," Minichiello says. Management comes under pressure from investors to "do something," and the investment banks are there with...
...sell insurance - and anticipated economies of scale often don't materialize. So now, "there is a trend away from conglomerates, there is a distaste for them because there is a lack of clarity and transparency, and they often fail to deliver diversification benefits," says Steve Russell, U.K. strategist at HSBC Investment Bank. Corporations are focusing on core businesses because pure plays are simpler for analysts and shareholders to understand...
...meantime, foreign lenders are finding ways to keep busy. HSBC has aligned itself with local banks and with the four state-owned major institutions, which gives the London-based bank's customers access to branches across much of China. HSBC last month bought an 8% share in the Bank of Shanghai, a seven-year-old entity controlled by the city. Citibank is reportedly considering the purchase of a 15% stake in the Bank of Communications, the fifth largest state-owned lender, also based in Shanghai...
...past year. But there is one part of Jardine Fleming's assets that its new parent company is holding close: its junks. Not those of the bond variety but the famous sailboats long associated with Hong Kong harbor. Companies such as J.P. Morgan and its rival HSBC entertain clients aboard well-appointed junks with colorful sails. Maeve Gallagher, J.P. Morgan's Hong Kong spokeswoman, says the junks are popular among bank employees, who get to use them when the boats aren't booked with clients...