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...With tensions rising ahead of Chinese President Hu Jintao's scheduled trip to Washington next month, is it possible that the U.S.-China trade relationship is about to go off the rails? Global markets shrug it off when the French throw a hissy fit and race to protect their vital national yogurt industry, as they did last year, or when pundits pretend it matters which European Union country owns what gas utility. But a trade war between the U.S. and China?with each side taking punitive, protectionist steps to shut out the other's products, services and investments?poses...
...President George W. Bush is plainly eager to finesse the trade issue as best he can. Asked a leading question at a press conference about trade with China earlier this month, Bush not only didn't take the bait, but offered a crisply cogent description of the economic reality Hu faces every morning: "Listen," Bush said, "China's a country that has to create 25 million jobs a year just to stay even. Think about that." He left it to Commerce Secretary Gutierrez to play what one former U.S. trade official called "the standard 'He Tarzan, me Jane...
...that happened?if, say, the Graham-Schumer bill became law and steep tariffs were levied on Chinese imports?Beijing would likely retaliate. Inside the Communist Party, Hu's leadership is under increasing pressure from party members who are questioning the benefits of the country's integration into the global economy. During the annual National People's Congress, which ended last week, former National Bureau of Statistics director Li Deshui was scathingly critical of government policies that give foreign firms preferential tax treatment in return for investment, and warned against allowing foreign companies to make "malicious acquisitions" until "China's national...
...Keeping things under control, surely, is what the Bush Administration prefers. But the White House is currently politically weakened?Bush's approval ratings are near all-time lows in the U.S.?and the Administration desperately needs to show some progress on trade when Hu arrives late next month. In particular, the Administration would like to see China come up with more substantive proposals to crack down on intellectual-property theft, and seeks evidence that Beijing is abiding by its wto commitment to open up key markets such as telecommunications to participation by U.S. companies...
...Bush?and Hu?manage to mollify those in Congress spoiling for a fight, then the risk of a trade war breaking out will ease. And eventually, free-market mechanisms?not ham-handed political intervention?may resolve the current bilateral trade tension. Jun Ma, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank, believes China is now in the midst of a historic economic shift. Investment spending is decelerating and consumption is picking up, although the shift is likely to take years to unfold. That, in turn, could bring China's trade surpluses down, as new opportunities open up for foreign companies that make...