Word: icbms
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Dates: during 1960-1969
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...halt in the development of nuclear weaponry before one side or the other achieves another technical breakthrough that will start a new spiral in the arms race. Both are now working on MIRVs, missiles carrying clusters of independently targetable warheads, which would multiply the destructive ability of each ICBM. The U.S. is probably ahead in MIRV development and could deploy the weapon by late 1970. In ABM, on the other hand, the Soviet Union has ringed Moscow with some missiles, while the U.S. is still in the research stage on its Safeguard ABM system...
...Russians vastly more difficult. The Soviets will almost surely want to delay serious dealings until they have caught up with the U.S. MIRV as an accomplished fact also complicates inspection of the opponent's arsenal, since there is no way that a spy satellite can tell whether an ICBM in its concrete silo is MIRVed or not. As Averell Harriman recently noted, "It is more difficult for us to come to an understanding this year than it was a year...
...Safeguard system has four key elements. PAR (perimeter acquisition radar) detects an enemy ICBM at long range some time after it has been launched, calculates its path, and then passes the missile track along to the less powerful but much more complex MSR (missile site radar). MSR then directs two types of ABMs against the incoming warheads. The long-range Spartan is designed to make an intercept above the atmosphere, at altitudes between 200 and 400 mi. The smaller Sprint would seek out and destroy warheads that penetrated the Spartan screen by intercepting them within 40 miles of the target...
Some of the opposition believe that Safeguard could be shelved by substantially hardening ICBM sites at a smaller cost ($6 billion to $7 billion). The Pentagon wants to do that in addition to Safeguard; the Air Force is already seeking out "hard rock" silo locations that would make ICBMs more resistant even to multimegaton near misses. Wiesner, Rathjens and Weinberg suggest that the number of ICBMs could be doubled for the price of Safeguard, which would mean that more than 1,000 missiles would survive an attack by the 420 SS-9s that the Pentagon's Foster hypothesized. Wohlstetter...
There is another view, however. By protecting the ICBM sites, while the Soviets thus far have set up only a primitive ABM defense in the Moscow region, the U.S. may encourage the U.S.S.R. to develop vastly more effective offensive weapons-such as MIRVs, Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles-to overcome the U.S. ABM defense. The Soviets may also feel compelled to deploy a more sophisticated ABM system themselves. The U.S. has already tested MIRVs of its own, although they will not be operational for several years. If the cycle of ABM-MIRV goes on unabated, both nations will...