Word: ifs
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Their mixture of seriousness and good humor seems to be contagious, as does their affection. Feliz-Taveras proudly beams, “The one thing we stress is having the Eleganza family.” Around the room, the models sit and talk and smile. As the rehearsal winds down...
Economists would tell you that everything happening is perfectly rational: The efficient market hypothesis of ash cloud flying calls for airline financial ruin, outrageous train prices, and a market for jets at the Dorchester. The market would have predicted it all, if only our models had incorporated Eyjafjallajökull...
Admittedly, it is hard to argue with such a positivist position, particularly when financiers and policymakers are willing and eager to rely on the appearance of mathematical certainty they provide. Certainty is attractive: Investors like companies with steady returns, just like individuals purchase insurance to hedge against the unknown; even...
The first is closely related to a philosophical idea popularized by Soros himself: reflexivity. Originally developed as a sociological concept, reflexivity incorporates the essential feedback loop between cause and effect into analysis. This is best illustrated through self-fulfilling prophecies; think about a bank run à la Northern Rock...
The second idea further complicates the ideological position of traditional econometricians by borrowing heavily from physicist Werner Heisenberg’s principle of uncertainty. If the observer adds an element of uncertainty by the mere fact of observing, then fully determined prediction is not a matter of how much data...