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...Reagan has become his own economist. At a meeting last fall, Feldstein, Regan and Stockman presented forecasts showing that the deficit would rise to well over $200 billion in the last half of the decade. The President studied the figures and noticed that inflation, as measured by a broad index known as the G.N.P. deflator, which includes prices paid by both businesses and consumers, was expected to hover around 5%. "Why can't we continue to make progress?" the President demanded. "We can't just declare victory...
...crisis develops that would cause a serious downturn in the economy, we should do what is necessary to remedy this. But you have to realize that the cost of such action can be renewed inflation." A jump in food costs brought on by bad weather caused the consumer price index to jump .6% in January, its steepest gain in nine months, but most economists remain hopeful that inflation will stay moderate this year...
...short remarks by Kurt Vonnegut on Nuclear War and John Gardner's posthumous advice to young fiction writers remained in my thoughts after the ephemeral had been forgotten. A few facts from the "Index," which was designed to "reflect the shifting currents of fact below the surface of the news," also stayed with me; the number of students who scored "double 800's" on the SAT's in 1982-83 (only 4), the number of wars in 1983 (41), and the percentage of Americans who think the afterlife will be boring (5 percent...
...lost confidence in the Administration's ability to deal with its fiscal affairs." Since the Dow hit a peak of 1286.64 in early January, the market has tumbled 10% from its high; investors in the more than 5,000 stocks that make up the Wilshire Associates' equity index have become $158 billion poorer...
...deficit, inflation will probably be rekindled. Volcker has pledged that he will not give up the progress against inflation that the U.S. achieved at the cost of a deep recession. Because of his tough monetary stance and the economic downturn it generated, the increase in the Consumer Price Index dropped from 12.4% in 1980 to 3.8% last year, the lowest level since 1972. But inflation concerns stirred a bit last week when the Government reported a .6% increase in wholesale prices in January, the sharpest rise in 14 months...