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Like sleet out of a grey winter sky, gloomy economic reports pelted out of Washington. The December industrial-production index drooped 7% below the level of December 1956. Personal income fell off in the steepest monthly drop since the alltime peak of last August. Year-end unemployment edged up 200,000 to 3.4 million to make it 5.2% of the labor force, the highest December rate since the recession year...
...free economy, said the report, "growth will inevitably proceed at a somewhat uneven pace." The "unfavorable feature" in the economy of 1957 was not the dip but the fact that, even with industrial capacity outpacing demand, the consumer price index kept creeping upward...
...upbeat mood. After months of slow decline, a record 5,073,730 shares changed hands on the last trading day of 1957. Despite the flood of shares offered by traders to establish tax losses, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose 3.91 points. Thereafter, with the selling pressure off, the index bounded another 8.87 points in the first two trading days of 1958, ended at 444.56, well above the low of 419.79 set two months...
After racing ahead at close to 100% for much of 1957, production of all manufacturing industries dipped to 82% of total capacity. Between August and November, production measured on the Federal Reserve index dropped six points to 139. Steel skidded to less than 70% of capacity, though total production, estimated at 113 million tons for the year, almost matched boom year...
...economy will "recede" or move sideways. But if recession is defined even in the mild terms of the 1953-54 slump, it will still be a gold-plated recession. At that time, gross national product dropped by $6.3 billion; industrial production dipped 15 points on the FRB's index, more than most economists foresee for 1958; unemployment then rose to 5% of the labor force, not the 4.5% estimated as the peak for 1958. Moreover, total employment (which tumbled 975,000 in 1954) is expected to rise by the end of '58 above the total...