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What a difference a financial crisis makes. After the worldwide economic boom went bust, demand abruptly evaporated for many commodities that go into the production of houses, cars, computers, and all kinds of durable goods. The Dow Jones-AIG commodity price index has shed more than half its value since mid-2008. Due to falling metal prices, BHP Billiton in January announced the mothballing of an Australian nickel mine only eight months after it officially opened. The most visible turnaround has been in oil. A year ago, Western governments were pleading with Persian Gulf oil states to ramp up production...
...wouldn't know it from the stock markets, though. Three weeks into April, the MSCI Pacific Index, which includes Australia and Japan, is up 10.4% for the month, and 3% over three months. The MSCI Australia Index has risen 6.6% month-to-date, the Hong Kong index 15%, and Japan 11%. Even hapless Singapore is doing well, thank you very much, boasting gains of 11.7% in the month to April 20 and 7.6% over three months.Read "China Takes On the Global Car Business...
Asia's emerging markets are doing even better. The MSCI EM Asia Index is higher by 22.5% over three months, led by Pakistan (72.4%), Indonesia (36.9%), Taiwan (33.3%) and China (25%). Korea, which for some reason MSCI still classifies as an emerging market even though the country is a member of the OECD, is up 18.4%. India? Higher by 15.6%. The Philippines is up 13%, Malaysia 9.2% . . . you get the picture...
...attempts to predict the volatility of the S&P 500 index over the next 30 trading days using options data from the index's 500 underlying stocks. Specifically, the VIX is a weighted average of the implied volatilities from a large basket of options. That may sound like an indecipherable description, but it basically means that it's a cumulative index of uncertainty. Of course, it only makes full sense if you know a bit about option pricing...
...market has fallen over the past year, investors have flooded into put options - the right to sell a stock - in order to hedge their portfolio against steep falls in the stock market. Thus, the prices of put options increased, and with them, the VIX. (Read "The Volatility Index: A Primer...