Word: indexes
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...hard to imagine a better time to publish a book that advocates moderation, balance and integrity in the business world. In this wise meditation, Bogle, the folk-hero creator of the first index mutual fund and founder of the Vanguard Mutual Fund Group, deplores "our worship of wealth and the growing corruption of our professional ethics but ultimately the subversion of our character and values." Directly in his sights: CEOs and hedge-fund managers who draw "obscene" compensation. At this time of plunging portfolios, it is a relief to be told that "enough" is within reach...
...still predicting too positive a picture for the companies they cover. Standard & Poor's recently polled stock analysts and found that together they believe the companies in the S&P 500 will earn $94.24 a share in 2009 in operating earnings. Not bad. By that measure, the S&P index has a p/e of 10.3, which is historically very cheap. Back in the late 1990s, the index...
...economist David Wyss, who looks at GDP and employment and other broad indicators of the economy, is that S&P earnings could end up about 50% lower, or $63 per share. Stocks analyst are typically more optimistic than economists, but only by a few bucks, says Howard Silverblatt, an index analyst at S&P. "Traditionally, when you get these big discrepancies, it is the economists who end up being a lot closer to reality," says Silverblatt...
There's a fine line between optimism and denial. The WilderHill New Energy Global Innovation Index, which tracks the stock prices of clean-tech companies, is down about 80% since the beginning of September. (By contrast, the S&P Index lost about 25% of its value over the same time period.) The cost of oil, which has driven much of the investment in alternative energy in recent years, has halved since the summer. And new green industries, like wind farms and solar-panel factories, are no less affected by the credit crunch than any other business...
When it comes to the U.S. housing market, it's sensible to plan for the worst. The latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index for a 20-city composite showed that prices recorded a 1% drop in August and were down 17% for the past 12 months. Miami had a 2% monthly drop and a 28% tumble over the last year; in San Francisco it was ?4%, and ?27% for the year...