Word: influenzae
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...Mexico last March, health officials from Washington to Beijing have been girding for a difficult fall and winter. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that anywhere from 15% to 45% of the world's population - 1 billion to 3 billion people - will catch the illness. "We know that influenza usually takes off in the winter months," says Alan Hay, director of WHO's World Influenza Center in London. "We assume that to be the case with H1N1. But there's no way to know precisely how a pandemic will unfold...
...study the flu virus is the human population itself. "If we get reports of a more severe infection with higher mortality rates, we can map the changes that made the virus more severe and monitor its spread. That could help health officials formulate policies," says Hay of the World Influenza Center, one of four laboratories at the hub of the WHO's global surveillance program. "But we're always playing catch-up with flu. It's impossible to stay ahead of this virus...
...says the nightmare scenario would involve the pandemic appearance of the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza. With a mortality rate of more than 60%, the virus is so dangerous to humans that his team can work with it only in biosecurity Level 4 laboratories, the highest level of biological containment available. So far, H5N1 is passed to humans only from birds and is not transmissible between humans. But if it were to swap genes with another influenza virus, possibly H1N1 (through, for example, a patient who contracts the two illnesses simultaneously), a new, more lethal pandemic strain could emerge with...
...Daniels have spent the bulk of their working lives searching for a virus that could cause a pandemic. Now they are watching a pandemic unfold in front of their eyes. When he talks about influenza, Daniels tends to use his hand as a visual aid, cupping his palm to mimic the virus's spherical structure and pretending his curled fingers are the sphere's protein spikes. As he looks down at his hand, his face breaks into a wry smile. "Forget the pandemic strain for a second and consider seasonal flu," he says. "How this virus can continue to evolve...
...hardiness as a human scourge is the result, paradoxically, of the instability of its genetic structure. One flu virus can easily swap genetic information with another or mutate as it reproduces. The World Influenza Centre is one of five WHO centers (there are others in Atlanta, Tokyo and Melbourne, and there's a lab in Memphis specializing in animal influenza) that form the hub of a global influenza-surveillance network. The center receives samples taken from ill patients in more than 100 countries. By examining the genetic makeup of the viruses in these samples, scientists can make educated guesses about...