Word: inspectors
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Iraq's al-Samoud 2 missile may be more useful to Saddam Hussein as a sacrificial offering, right now, than as an artillery weapon. As Britain, Spain and the U.S. square off against France, Germany and Russia in a crucial Security Council debate over Iraqi disarmament, UN weapons inspectors have demanded that Iraq destroy its entire arsenal of the offending missile by March 1. Chief inspector Dr. Hans Blix has declined to negotiate with Baghdad over that demand - leaving no doubt that failure to comply would lead him to report to the Security Council that Iraq has failed a benchmark...
...inspector's demand creates a dilemma for Saddam: Why surrender a whole category of tactical weaponry when you're expecting to be invaded even if you do? But Iraq is believed to have manufactured about 100 of the missiles, which don't have an onboard guidance system, and that would hardly make a decisive difference against the legions of General Tommy Franks. And refusing to destroy them will almost certainly bring an invasion within weeks. Saddam's conduct until now suggests that he is well aware that his best weapons against the U.S. military are political and diplomatic. Every time...
That fits the diplomatic timetable too. Hans Blix, the head United Nations weapons inspector, who returns from Baghdad this week, will report to the U.N. Security Council on Feb. 14 on the degree of Iraqi disarmament and cooperation. On the good assumption that Blix will not give Saddam Hussein's regime a clean bill of health, Security Council members are beginning to consider the shape of a final resolution, though no drafts have yet been circulated...
...most controversial items are still those infamous aluminum tubes Iraq tried to procure. Bush asserted again in his State of the Union address that they were for constructing centrifuges to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons. But the chief nuclear inspector, Mohamed ElBaradei, has reported his expert conclusion that they were for legal artillery rockets. The Administration intends to show that ElBaradei is wrong--that these are specially calibrated, high-tensile-strength tubes able to take more stress than regular missile tubes and that the Iraqis paid 50 times the $1 market price for conventional pipes...
When U.N. inspectors returned to Baghdad two months ago, they were hoping to finish the job of dismantling Saddam's weapons. They have searched for any trace of biological, chemical or nuclear munitions. They have found 12 empty warheads, among other suspect items. While Iraq has opened the doors to Saddam's palaces, chief inspector Hans Blix says they are still playing hide-and-seek. --By Mitch Frank...