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California's $186 billion state pension fund is worried enough to have begun unloading some of its real estate holdings. Phyllis Rockower, who started the Real Estate Investor's Club of Los Angeles in 1996, is worried too. Membership in her club has soared. "Most people who come to my meetings sold their high-tech stocks after 2000," she says. "We had to move to a bigger room. It's either a sign of the times or a market top." What's her bet? Rockower has six houses on the market--nearly every investment property she owns...
...that was in 1996, before the boom. A coldhearted investor could say the Connellys, for all their success, screwed up. Little Gobles is not exactly the white-hot center of the real estate inferno. If they had continued trading up for nine years--buy, fix, sell, buy, fix, sell--there's no telling how much profit they could have made. (Their Chicago house, they say, would now sell for more than $750,000.) And if they had plowed that profit into a second investment property ... and a third...
...popular is the kiss of death," says Amit Wadhwaney, manager of the New York-based Third Avenue International Value Fund. Indeed, there's no more reliable way of earning dismal long-term returns than betting on what's hot. Consider some of the many ill-fated outbreaks of investor madness that have gripped Asia in recent decades: the giddiness over Japanese stocks in the late 1980s, the Hong Kong property bubble of the 1990s, euphoria over Chinese red chips in 1996-97, and the mad rise of Thai banking stocks before the carnage of the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis...
Upon receiving the ICG letter, Yale University President Richard C. Levin referred the matter to the Yale Advisory Committee on Investor Responsibility. The ICG has also received inquiries for more information about divestment from UCLA, Stanford, and Amherst...
Whatever Kerkorian's motives, associates say his intentions are clear. "Kirk tends to be a long-term investor, and don't let the fact that he's 87 fool you," says friend Mason, suggesting that Kerkorian will wait patiently for a GM turnaround. Says Ralph Whitworth, a financier who worked with Kerkorian in the '90s: "He's not a control freak. He just likes to get good returns...