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Bush led the race with 274 Electoral College votes as of last night, compared to 252 for Kerry. New Mexico and Iowa remained too close to call...
Results in New Mexico and Iowa were still unclear early this morning, and the Kerry campaign had not said whether it would request a recount of votes in Ohio...
Iowans know Kerry well; he spent much of last winter there resurrecting his campaign. But Bush is betting a Massachusetts Senator can't appeal to Iowa farmers. Kerry needs to win big in the Des Moines area and eastern cities like Davenport and Cedar Rapids. Bush will almost surely win the western third of the state. State officials estimate that 25% of voters will cast early or absentee ballots...
...between Bush and Kerry over Iraq, terrorism and national security has become a defining fault line. On the hustings last week, each candidate issued extraordinary indictments of his opponent's fitness to be Commander in Chief. "The President says he's a leader," Kerry told an audience in Waterloo, Iowa. "Well, Mr. President, look behind you. There's hardly anyone there." Less than 100 miles away, Bush questioned Kerry's steadfastness against the threat of terrorism: "You can't win a war when you don't believe you're fighting one." The sniping was more than rhetorical. In exchanges like...
Even political pros are hedging their bets on the outcome of a presidential horse race that shifts almost daily. But one prophecy has been surprisingly confident: that of the online futures market, where thousands of people bet real money on the race. The major exchanges--the Iowa Electronic Markets and Intrade--have, on average, given Bush about a 60% chance of winning since September. While some say the markets are too small to be clairvoyant (only $8 million has been traded in the Bush contract at Dublin-based Intrade, the largest market), they have impressive records. Since 1988, the Iowa...