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People in most states aren't as steeped in politics as the voters of New Hampshire and Iowa, and aren't likely to start paying serious attention until primary day is upon them. The trick for each candidate except Dean could be to last long enough to be there when they do. Even the other campaigns concede privately that if Dean hasn't stumbled by then--and particularly, if he has won both Iowa and New Hampshire--the race could be all but over before the other candidates get to test their appeal outside the political-hothouse environment...
...endorsement. "Go talk to them." Only one candidate, Stern says, took him up on it. Howard Dean not only talked to SEIU members, he showed up on their picket line at Yale University, cheered their organizers at a San Francisco hospital and consulted the union's nurses in Iowa as he put together his proposal for solving the shortage in their profession. "Howard Dean didn't start on top," Stern says, "but he certainly ended...
...second-place finish in Iowa, though, may be little more than a speed bump to Dean as he heads for New Hampshire a week later. The state is a must-win for Massachusetts' Kerry, who was once presumed to be the front runner but now looks more irrelevant than inevitable. In the latest WMUR-TV and University of New Hampshire poll, released last Friday night, Dean opened a gaping 38%-to-16% lead over Kerry, and no one else topped 5%. Kerry's fund raisers are telling him it's getting next to impossible to find anyone willing to write...
...seems clear that Joe Lieberman is not going to win this nomination. He has pulled out of Iowa. He has dropped to the bottom of the plausible contenders in the New Hampshire polls. His lone hope is to catch fire as the alternative to Howard Dean in the second wave of primaries--in states like South Carolina, Arizona and Oklahoma, where moderate voters abide--but John Edwards and perhaps Wesley Clark seem more likely candidates for that role. Still, Lieberman's candidacy has instructional value on two grounds: his courage has made plain the cowardice of his opponents...
...even bother to have a vote? Because Dean is trying to be remain the underdog, even as he becomes the frontrunner. He has the money advantage. The latest polls show him ahead in New Hampshire and tied with Gephardt in Iowa. And two of the biggest unions in America, the SEIU and AFCSME, are poised to endorse him, which will help kill the impression that only rich Northeastern liberals support him and put a stake in the heart of Dick Gephardt, the old liberal guard?s best hope of derailing Dean...