Word: iran
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...believe what you read about Iran's nuclear program. We know as much about it as we did about Saddam's weapons of mass destruction. Iran could test a nuke next week, or not for another 20 years. It all depends on who you want to believe...
...Israelis imply that Iran is a few turns of a screwdriver away from completing its nuke. Britain says Tehran has been working hard on a design "since late 2004 or early 2005" and is "close" to having a bomb. The U.S., in a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, says Iran stopped working on a bomb in 2003 but could restart that work at any time. The Iranians, of course, say they're not working on one at all. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which inspects Iran's nuclear facilities, says it has found no evidence of a bomb program...
...reason the estimates are all over the canvas is that Iran, like Iraq, is one of the world's worst countries in which to establish facts. It's a vicious police state dedicated to stopping its national-security secrets from leaking. The few journalists and academics allowed into Iran are sharply circumscribed in their contacts and the places they can visit. The quickest way to be arrested or escorted out of that country is to ask questions about its bomb. Western diplomats and intelligence operatives have only marginally better access. The IAEA knowledge of Iran's nuclear programs is limited...
...Another reason for the different estimates is that Iran has multiple nuclear programs. We are likely to find out that the nuclear facility revealed recently near Qum is under the control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Long suspected of building its own bomb, the IRGC has a well-funded, experienced, clandestine procurement network capable of buying and operating centrifuges to enrich uranium as well as building triggering devices. The IRGC already possesses missiles that could deliver a nuke...
...containment. To deter, we must maintain a small, residual capability in Afghanistan for a few years, as well as offshore air and missile capabilities to inflict harsh punishment when necessary. To contain threats, Washington needs to form alliances with neighboring states like Pakistan, India, China, Russia and even Iran, which supported us in the early days of the war. All share an interest in combatting Sunni-based religious extremism as well as the drug trade...