Word: iran
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...plan to build a missile shield in Eastern Europe, which had been seen by Russia as a blatant military threat. Even Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was impressed. He had been icy toward Obama during their July meeting - there were certainly no hugs and smiles like the ones he gave Iran's President in Tehran in 2007. But in September, Putin called Obama's decision to ax the missile shield "correct and brave," and Russia's threat to "neutralize" Bush's plan by aiming rockets at Europe was quietly put aside. The Russian public also started coming around. According to surveys...
Under these circumstances, the embattled Iranian government is unable to set a new course for its foreign policy. In a state of paralysis, Iran's behavior is primarily driven by two forces: bureaucratic inertia and a willingness to take only those decisions that are deemed low-risk within Iran's internal political context. That does not include compromise with Washington and the International Atomic Energy Agency on the nuclear issue. From the Iran-Contra scandal onwards, Iran's history is ripe with examples of Iranian politicians losing their careers after trying to create an opening to the U.S. Iran...
...game changer would be victory by Iran's pro-democracy green movement. But Washington has little influence over the fate of the greens and the movement's struggle follows a timetable that is not synchronized with Iran's nuclear trajectory. The opposition remains a thorn in Khamenei's side. But exaggerated expectations of its prospects will put undue pressure on the movement. (See pictures of terror in Tehran...
...here is the central dilemma of Iranian policy: Iran's greens need time, but Washington does not seem to think it can afford to wait. While patience is underrated in the U.S. political culture, impatience carries a much greater risk when dealing with a country currently prone to escalation. The tragedy of yet another war in the Middle East is something America simply cannot afford. Waiting for something to change is hard for Americans. But on Iran, that is what they should...
Though some in Iraq continue to doubt Washington's resolve, U.S. troops are indeed leaving, at the rate of about 10,000 per month. Much as they may enjoy their democracy, many Iraqis are concerned about who will fill the vacuum. Iran, for example. Tehran watched with glee as the U.S. toppled its archenemy Saddam, but worried that it was the next candidate for regime change, the Islamic Republic has supported anti-American Shi'ite militias and political parties ever since. Iran won't be the only country likely to flex its muscles after the election. Turkey - which...