Word: iranian
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Dates: during 1980-1989
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...accurate long range forecasting comes from the increasing possibility of future shocks which cannot be surmised from historical trends. Many petroleum analysts in the mid-'70s predicted world crude oil prices would hit a ceiling at $10 per barrel. Obviously, they did not foresee OPEC's tenacity or the Iranian revolution and subsequent supply disruption. The possibility of another significant oil supply shock within the next five years festered in the imagination of MR&A forecasters. The downfall of the present Saudi Arabian government looms on the horizon: "If CIA reports claiming the Soviet Union will run out of domestic...
...free the hostages. He felt that using Billy was worth a try since Arab societies tend to put blood ties above formal positions in government. In fact, after Brzezinski met with Ali Houderi, Libya's top diplomat in Washington, the Libyan government issued a statement condemning the Iranian action. That move, Brzezinski claimed, "certainly prevented the jelling of a radical front at the time." He felt that it may have saved American lives...
...experts readily obliged. They told Newsom that Khomeini's omission was a deliberate signal--not an accident, as some Iranian politicians had claimed--and recommended that the U.S. give a quick and positive reply before hardliners added any new conditions...
...didn't happen. Last Monday, Secretary of State Edmund S. Muskie pledged U.S. non-interference in Iran's internal affairs, noted that a "chapter has closed" in Iran's history with the fall and death of the Shah, and emphasized that the U.S. "recognize(s) the reality of the Iranian Revolution." But by that time, the hostage issue had receded behind the shadow of the confrontation across the Iraq-Iran frontier...
Bisharat speculated that since the conflict will preoccupy Iranian leaders the release of the American hostages might be delayed temporarily...