Word: iraq
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Dates: during 1990-1999
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...Wurttemberg, "will be information gathering in the scientific- technical realm." Agents from Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Poland and Romania are still operating in Germany, says the report, as are those from China, "especially at universities." In a warning that probably applies to all industrialized nations, the German security report says Iran, Iraq, Libya and Syria are running clandestine intelligence operations aimed at "the development of atomic, biological and chemical weapons...
...even if the budget is not cut, the intelligence collection is foolproof and the analysis flawless, it can all still go wrong. In the summer of 1990, for example, CIA's National Intelligence Officer for Warning predicted flatly that Iraq was about to invade Kuwait. George Bush refused to believe it, preferring to accept the personal assurances he had received from Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and other Middle Eastern leaders. In recent years, the agency has produced several full-dress estimates on Yugoslavia. Though the scenarios were correct, says a U.S. official, "they seem to have had almost no impact...
...Marine raised on John Wayne movies and bloodied in Desert Storm's armored romp through Iraq might be perplexed by last week's action in Mogadishu. Under the command of a Turkish general who was advised by a retired U.S. admiral, U.N. Special Envoy Jonathan Howe, troops from five countries set about destroying the power base of Somalia's most notorious warlord, General Mohammed Farrah Aidid, beneath a hail of missile fire and cannon bursts from helicopter gunships overhead. Troops from the U.S., Pakistan, Morocco, France and Italy searched for Aidid. Prodded by Washington, the U.N. wanted to punish...
...Even slowing the spread is difficult. The nuclear nonproliferation treaty bars development by or transfer of the weapons to non-nuclear states. It has done some good, but it has not prevented additional states from acquiring the bomb. Several, including India, Pakistan and Israel, simply refused to sign. Iraq, on the other hand, signed the treaty but cheated. Iran and North Korea signed and have gone ahead with development...
However firm its stance, the U.S. cannot entirely eliminate the ambitions and fears that prod nations to acquire weapons of mass destruction. Washington could not, even if it wanted to, guarantee Arab states against Israel, India against China, Pakistan against India or Iran against Iraq. Some of them have the bomb now, and the others will get it. In the years to come, the U.S. will have to choose very carefully where to engage its interests and its military forces. It may have its hands full just protecting itself...