Word: iraq
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Dates: during 1990-1999
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Back to you, Kofi: Iraq has refused to cooperate with Richard Butler, and on Thursday it stopped a U.N. team from conducting inspections. The big question now is whether Baghdad will play ball with Kofi Annan. "The February agreement that averted a military confrontation specified that the Secretary General would be the final mediator in disputes between Baghdad and the U.N. weapons inspection team," explains TIME reporter Stuart Stogel. "If Iraq refuses to abide by Kofi's ruling in the matter, we'll be back in a crisis situation...
...Starr's August "endgame" promises to play as something of a horror movie on Wall Street, while the fall looks likely to bring a new Iraq crisis, followed by November's midterm elections. The U.S. may also be pressed into bombing the Serbs in Kosovo along the way. "I don't think political developments are the first thing on the minds of traders," says Kadlec. "But then again, for the past few years everything has been going well in politics...
...Even though Saddam's provocation seems to play into the hands of Washington's attempts to maintain U.N. sanctions against Iraq, it may actually help Baghdad, says TIME reporter Stuart Stogel. After all, Saddam's international sympathy reached an all-time high earlier this year when he was under threat of U.S. military action. In that sense, if the U.S. Navy didn't exist, Saddam might be equally inclined to invent...
...breakdown of U.N. arms talks with Iraq sets the stage for yet another standoff in the fall. But this time, Washington will find it even more difficult to rouse a posse to go after him. "By ending talks with the U.N. inspectors, Iraq is setting things up for a confrontation in October when sanctions come up for review," says TIME correspondent Doug Waller. "Baghdad is counting on support from France, China and Russia for an end to sanctions, and the U.S. will face an even bigger fight this time around...
...Then again, Iraq's abrupt termination of talks with Richard Butler suggests that Saddam may be preparing to again suspend cooperation with the U.N. weapons inspectors. And that could be Washington's best hope: "If the Iraqis overplay their hand and get belligerent, that could provoke the Security Council into continuing sanctions," says Waller. Indeed, without Saddam Hussein's legendary capacity for overreaction, sanctions might already have been history...