Word: iraq
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...Western observers say that for now there appears to be little evidence of serious vote-rigging. Still, Ahmed Chalabi, the former Pentagon favorite now aligned with the Sadrists, has demanded that all allegations be thoroughly investigated before final result are published. At this rate, it may be months before Iraq even has a definitive result, let alone a government...
...great hope for Iraq's March 7 national elections was that could they could restore faith in the democratic process, and set a new tone of national purpose in Baghdad's corridors of power. The great fear was that without clear winners and losers, the elections could produce months of bitter infighting, heightening the sectarian and ethnic tensions behind the civil war that broke out after the 2005 election. And 10 days after the polls closed, with partial results tricking in and about 80% of the vote counted, Iraq appears destined for more trouble...
...results currently are so close - with current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki neck-and-neck with former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, and the movement of radical Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr emerging with what may be a kingmaker's share of the vote - that Iraq could see months of deadlock that will do little to boost the country's faith in its politicians. Moreover, the election results have broken down along depressingly familiar sectarian and the ethnic fault lines - although with the authority of the traditional ethnic and sectarian parties weakening in a manner that will further complicate efforts...
...even if each retained a core identity well known to voters: Maliki's State of Law coalition ran on a law-and-order platform but drew primarily from a moderate Shi'ite base; Allawi's Iraqiya ran on a similar platform but ran strongest among Sunnis. But even if Iraq's politicians pretended to have outgrown identity politics, voters either didn't get the memo or saw through the spin, and voted largely by ethnicity and sect. Allawi won in majority Sunni areas; Maliki won his seats in majority in Shi'ite areas; and Kurds voted for Kurds...
...Another major stumbling block in the negotiations to form a government will be the oil-rich city of Kirkuk and the other disputed areas in northern Iraq. In a surprising turnaround, the Kurdish parties appear to have lost Kirkuk by a slim margin to Allawi's list, which has taken a hard line against Kurdish claims to the city. Since Maliki - whose current government was installed with Kurdish support, but dragged its feet on Kurdish claims to Kirkuk - now has fewer possible partners to form a government, he may find himself more dependent on them than ever. And that would...