Word: iraq
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Israel goes to the polls on Feb. 10 to elect a new Prime Minister and parliament; voters in Iran will choose a new President on June 12; and Iraq will hold provincial elections next January, followed by a national election late in 2009. Afghanistan is slated to hold new presidential elections next fall...
...defiance. Even if Obama's victory represents more of a change in style than the substance of its policy, the confluence of economic bad times and the possibility of an improved, respectful relationship with the U.S. based on dialogue - and the prospect of U.S. withdrawal from Iraq - sets the scene for an Ahmadinejad defeat. Of course, Iran's President does not make national-security decisions; that's the prerogative of the Supreme Leader, Ayatullah Ali Khamenei. But a change in presidential style in Tehran paralleling the stylistic change in Washington may combine to reduce the risk of escalation and confrontation...
...Iraq: "Responsible" Withdrawal Iraq votes twice in 2009, with provincial elections in January and national elections slated for the end of the year. And the outcome of those votes could have a major impact on the security conditions on the ground in Iraq, which will affect the calculation of Obama's plan to withdraw "responsibly" from Iraq within 16 months...
Obama's victory certainly helps the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, because al-Maliki is looking to base his political appeal on being the man who got the U.S. out of Iraq (even though he still depends on its military presence). Dealing with a U.S. President committed to the same goal (rather than with President Bush, who had openly advocated a long-term U.S. military presence in Iraq) will certainly help a Prime Minister under pressure from both his own electorate and his influential neighbor, Iran, to refrain from authorizing an extended U.S. presence. Neutralizing the presence...
...security gains from the U.S. "surge" have not translated into political reconciliation among Iraq's contending factions, and next year's elections could well see a deterioration of security conditions. And while deployment of U.S. forces may be a way of helping contain any upsurge of political violence, the expectation of a U.S. withdrawal may prompt some of Iraq's contending factions to step up their own attacks on U.S. forces in order claim an American withdrawal as a victory for their armed formations. Whatever their outcome, it remains questionable whether Iraq's 2009 election season will help foster security...