Word: iraqi
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...with the U.S. military presence in Iraq beginning to draw down, the government in Baghdad has made it clear that it will evict the MEK, though not to Iran. (Iraqi troops forced their way into the MEK's camp north of Baghdad on July 28.) Given the decline of the MEK's fortunes in Iraq, Tehran seems to have decided in late 2008 that the al-Qaeda commanders under house arrest had lost their value as bargaining chips. Several of them, including Saad bin Laden, appear to have been taken to the border with Pakistan and released. For Saad, however...
...Baghdad act now? The sudden escalation with Ashraf may have more to do with a bruised Iranian regime's bid to stamp out its opponents both at home and abroad than with any pressing Iraqi national interest. Iran's regime - roiled by continuing postelection unrest at home that poses the most serious threat to its rule since the 1979 Revolution - may have finally put its foot down regarding the MEK. (See pictures of the turbulent aftermath of Iran's presidential election...
...same time, it's a win-win for Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who gets to burnish his tough-guy credentials ahead of national elections early next year as well as please his allies, the ayatullahs. There's little love in Iraq for the MEK, which was welcomed by Saddam Hussein in the mid-'80s, when he was at war with Iran, and supplied with a training camp and armaments. The group is accused of repaying its benefactor by helping quash Kurdish and Shi'ite rebellions - charges the MEK has denied...
...hasn't stepped into the fray, insisting that the situation is a matter for the Iraqi government to handle. "This is completely within their purview," State Department spokesman Ian Kelly told reporters in Washington, adding that the U.S. had received assurances that Baghdad would not forcibly transfer Ashraf's residents, especially to countries like Iran where they may face persecution or physical harm...
...Ashraf. If casualties escalate, the U.S. may feel compelled to intervene, complicating Iraq's delicate balancing act between its two rival allies, the U.S. and Iran. Perhaps the most likely, and best-case, scenario is a return to the old stalemate, with the MEK refusing to leave and the Iraqis refusing to kick them out. But for now, Iraqi troops are inside the wire, not on the outside looking in at their unwanted guests...