Word: iraqis
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...leaders who expected him to be a weak prime minister, he surprised the country by consolidating power, reaching out beyond his Shi'ite base and embracing the cause of national unity. Still, Maliki's State of Law coalition has significant weaknesses. Though untouched by scandal himself, the Iraqi government is notoriously corrupt, and voters remain unhappy about the lack of services such as electricity...
...This time around, Maliki also has to look over his shoulder at his former Shi'ite allies, who have formed a coalition without him. The Iraqi National Alliance - led by Ammar al-Hakin, Moqtadah al-Sadr and Ahmed Chalabi among others - is more Islamist, and more friendly with Iran than Maliki's Dawa party...
...Another major wild card this time is the Kurds. In the last elections, the two ruling parties of the Kurdish regional government - the Kurdish enclave in northern Iraq - voted lock-step for a Kurdish list, giving them significant leverage with Arab Iraqi parties in post-election negotiations. But though they joined Maliki's ruling coalition and formed a government together, the Kurdish ruling parties complain that Maliki hasn't delivered on his promises to return disputed areas to Kurdish authority. This time, the Kurds may be tempted into an alliance with the anti-Maliki Shi'ites. (See pictures of Iraq...
...final composition of the government will nominally affect the future direction of the Iraqi state - whether it becomes more centralized in the hands of the Baghdad government, or whether power is devolved to the regions, especially the Shi'ite-dominated south and the Kurdish north. But either direction could destabilize the country. Devolution could spark a civil war between Arabs and Kurds, while further centralization in a country with a history of totalitarianism could put Iraq on a slippery slope to a new kind of dictatorship...
...results, can they form a government quickly, and can that government move forward on an agenda? If Iraq's leaders can't work out a compromise without Vice President Joe Biden - the Administration's point man on Iraq - making several trips to Baghdad, the chances are slim the Iraqi political system will be able to stand on its own once the U.S. leaves...