Word: israells
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...will the Gaza conflict be resolved? Israel's dominant military stance puts its leaders in a position to decide how the hostilities will end. But those leaders remain locked in debate among themselves over the best way to do that. Here are the three most likely scenarios, each with different political consequences for the main players and the future of the conflict...
...Israel's declared purpose in launching Operation Cast Lead was to halt Palestinian rocket fire from Gaza and prevent Hamas from being able to rearm by smuggling weapons from Egypt. Israel remains committed, however, to a long-term goal of ending Hamas' control of Gaza, and it insists that the movement should gain no "recognition" or "legitimacy" as part of any truce - a tough call since Hamas is the key combatant on the Palestinian side. (See pictures of the Gaza ground...
Scenario 1: Regime Change Given Israel's long-term goal of ousting Hamas in Gaza, some key military and political leaders have urged that it expand the goals of its current operation and use its momentum to take control of Gaza City and decapitate Hamas. Most vocal in advocating this option is Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu, the hawkish front runner in the race for Prime Minister, who will portray any outcome that leaves Hamas intact in Gaza as a failure - bad news for his chief rivals, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni...
Even if forced out of power, Hamas would maintain a resistance role that would prevent anyone else from governing the territory. (The organization is estimated to have close to 20,000 men under arms in Gaza, of whom Israel claims to have killed no more than 2.5% so far.) That would force Israel to reoccupy a territory from which it sought to separate in 2005. Still, Israeli leaders hope the military operation can deal a powerful enough blow to hobble Hamas. They still wish to see Abbas' authority reimposed as part of any truce. More realistically, perhaps, Arab mediators...
Scenario 2: Long-Term Cease-Fire Israel has insisted that a cease-fire be "sustainable" by ensuring that Hamas is unable to rearm itself. An actual disarming of Hamas' current militias is unlikely without a full-scale reoccupation of Gaza, which would involve tens of thousands more Israeli troops over many months. Anything less would leave Hamas as the dominant security presence inside Gaza. So Israel's priority will be to choke off the supply of rockets and mortar shells, which have been smuggled through tunnels from Gaza and fired at Israel. The Israelis want Egypt to police those tunnels...