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...President Bush is due to meet Prime Minister Maliki against a backdrop in which U.S. officials are increasingly frustrated over the failure of the Iraqi government to act against the Shi'ite militias, which are answerable to parties in the ruling coalition. Washington views the dismantling of those militias as the key to achieving national reconciliation with the Sunnis and isolating the insurgency...
...following the latest attacks, the pressure on Maliki from his own base to resist U.S. demands will likely be greater than whatever leverage President Bush can bring to bear: The Iraqi leader has long made clear that he can only move against the Shi'ite militias after the Sunni insurgent threat has been removed, and the bloodshed in Sadr City Thursday will only reinforce that point. Indeed, Sadr's party threatened to quit the government if Maliki's meeting with Bush goes ahead next week - and Sadr's support has been critical to keeping him in power...
...latest escalation in bloodshed began with a two-hour siege Thursday by Sunni gunmen on the Ministry of Health; then suspected Sunni insurgents detonated a series of bombs in crowded places in Sadr City and other Shi'ite neighborhoods that killed more than 160 people. Shi'ite militiamen retaliated by firing mortars at mosques and other targets in neighboring Sunni suburbs. And tensions were further inflamed by an incident in which U.S. troops, searching in Sadr City for a kidnapped American soldier, fired on a van that refused to slow down in response to a signal, killing four civilians...
...opponents that led to Hariri's murder in a massive bomb blast five months later. And two years on, that confrontation appears to still be taking a deadly toll. Gemayel's murder has brought Lebanon's Western-backed government dangerously close to collapse. Six pro-Syrian Shi'ite ministers quit the 24-member coalition cabinet a week ago after their bid for extra seats that would give them a veto-wielding one-third stake in the government was rebuffed. Now, following Gemayel's murder, it will take the resignation - or death - of two more ministers to bring down the government...
...While the identity of Gemayel's killers remains a matter of speculation, what is clear is that the stakes are getting higher for Siniora. By tradition, the Lebanese cabinet contains members of all the country's main sectarian groupings. Without any ministers who are Shi'ite - Lebanon's largest community - the legitimacy of his government is open to question. And if the government can't maintain security - or even protect its own officials - many Lebanese may turn to someone...