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...Baghdad and it may end badly. The U.S. military has been very careful to say that the current offensive by the Iraqi government in southern Iraq was simply "enforcement of the law in Basra." It was not directed against the Mahdi Army, the militia run by radical Shi'ite cleric (and political powerhouse) Moqtada al-Sadr, whose seven-month-old cease-fire has been key to the success of the American surge. The U.S. maintained that line today even though it was clear that the "criminal gangs" battling government forces in Basra were identifiable as elements of the Mahdi Army...
Outside the Shi'ite underclass, however, there is little sympathy for Sadr and his cohorts. Most Iraqis wonder why it has taken so long for the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to take on the Mahdi Army. Inevitably, many are asking whether Maliki will go whole hog, pursuing the Mahdi Army until it is completely destroyed. Failure to do so could cost Maliki his political life, and leave Iraq to reckon with a wounded, more dangerous animal. On Wednesday, he gave the militias in Basra 72 hours to surrender their weapons...
...attack the Mahdi Army in Baghdad and the holy city of Najaf. Then a poorly armed and ill-trained band, Sadr's men were easily routed, but Allawi didn't have the stomach to deliver the coup de grace: he allowed Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the senior Shi'ite cleric, to broker a peace that allowed Sadr to keep his fighters and, more importantly, his freedom...
Sadr then morphed from a militia leader to a political force in Iraq's parliament, controlling the second-largest bloc of MPs in the Shi'ite alliance that brought Maliki to power. And his militia regrouped, acquiring arms, training and a modicum of discipline with help from Iran and Lebanon's Hizballah. By the end of 2005, the Mahdi Army had grown into a formidable force. Allawi's political fortunes, meanwhile, had faded. Religious Shi'ites never forgave him for attacking the militias, and secular Iraqis accused him of leaving the job unfinished; in two general elections, he was barely...
...Maliki government turned a blind eye to this murderous campaign, blaming only "rogue" elements of the Mahdi Army. Given Sadr's political clout, a direct confrontation could have brought down the government. Besides, with Sunni insurgents and al-Qaeda terrorists still attacking Shi'ite neighborhoods, an offensive against the Mahdi Army would likely have been unpopular with Shi'ites of all classes...