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...inconclusive results for Israel of the monthlong war it fought in the summer of 2006 against Lebanon's militant Shi'ite Hizballah meant that another confrontation was probably just a matter of time. And with the February 12 assassination in Damascus of a senior Hizballah commander continuing to roil the waters of the Middle East, that much-anticipated second round could be drawing nearer...
...Spooning brown sugar into tiny glasses of tea, the Hizballah commander said that the Shi'ite fighters will be on the offensive in the next war, hinting at taking the battle into Israel itself. "We weren't expecting the last war and we fought only to defend our land, but next time you will see a very different kind of fighting," he said...
...which has been a major factor in bringing down the overall level of violence in Iraq. Sadr had sent some signals to the Americans suggesting he was likely to extend the cease-fire. And U.S. officials, such as Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, believe that the Shi'ite firebrand may be changing his ways...
...Sadr movement has, of course, long been involved in social and political activism in addition to militia violence. Its activists can be found doing everything from from holding seats in parliament to offering cut-rate propane in poor Shi'ite neighborhoods. That the Sadrists might choose to emphasize some of these activities over armed confrontation is quite plausible, but Moqtada al-Sadr is notoriously unpredictable, and the thinking behind his moves is often unclear. Sadr could just as easily be simply biding his time until surge troops leave in July...
...guerrilla attacks. But the Mahdi Army has largely avoided confronting U.S. forces for years, and the cease-fire Sadr announced unexpectedly six months ago was not directed at the Americans as much as it was aimed at halting fighting between Sadr's followers and members of the rival Shi'ite Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) and its Badr militia. Intra-Shi'ite fighting threatened al-Sadr's popularity, and it was in his interests to tamp things down. But the Sadrists and SIIC are still vying for control in much of southern Iraq, and their conflict is likely to flare...