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...high-profile pushback? Diplomatic necessity. Bush was to embark on Jan. 8 for an eight-day Middle East trip, in part to persuade his gulf allies to unite against Iran. Their leaders (all Sunnis) are wary of (Shi'ite) Iran's growing power but have been reluctant to side with U.S. calls for a new U.N. resolution. Last year's U.S. intelligence report, which downplayed the Iranian nuclear threat, did little to help U.S. credibility on the issue. So even a brief act of aggression by Iran became welcome evidence for the U.S. case. Skeptics say Washington sees...
...Saddam Hussein's dictatorship was more about breaking Arab military strength and projecting American strategic power than fighting terrorism, much less creating Iraqi democracy. While Iraq is no longer a one-man show, it will be a very long time before anyone considers the country, now dominated by Shi'ite Muslim gangs, Kurdish warlords and Sunni terrorists, emblematic of an emerging democracy. If the Iraq war was about Bush's freedom agenda, Arabs wonder, why has the White House stood by so quietly as pro-American authoritarian Arab regimes have jailed democracy activists, as happened to former presidential candidate Ayman...
...militias like the Mahdi Army. Sadr declared a cease-fire at the end of August after his militia took the blame for fighting in the holy city of Karbala. But it retains its ability to fight other militias in southern Iraq. It is also still active in Shi'ite neighborhoods of Baghdad, even though its leaders have held back from fighting American troops for control of the streets. In fact, the cease-fire may have allowed Sadr to consolidate his fragmented and often unruly organization...
Meanwhile, Sadr's militia may be asserting mafia-like control over the poor Shi'ite areas where it has long provided the services and security the government has not. "What you do have is, the Mahdi Army, Inc.," said Petraeus, backing up an earlier assessment by U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker. The militia has come to dominate not simply by force, but also by controlling staples like fuel and electricity...
...troop strength will be back where it was in late 2006. So, if the cease-fire does end, the U.S. will not be fighting with the 30,000 reinforcements that contributed to the gains of 2007. It will also face an adversary with strong support in Shi'ite communities and elements of the Iraqi government. At that point it may be the U.S., rather than its foe, that will have to make a tough choice about whether it can or should continue to fight...