Word: ites
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...Script: Moqtada Sadr not only wants the Shi'ites to dominate in the new political order in Iraq; he plans to be the dominant voice among the Shi'ites - and has skillfully ridden the wave of anti-American anger triggered by U.S. efforts against him to his own advantage. Indeed, the fact that Sistani held a meeting with Moqtada, whom he would previously have dismissed as an upstart rabble-rouser, to help bring peace to Najaf is a sign that the young imam's stature has grown as a result of his battle with the Americans. Sadr's game plan...
...Challenge: Moqtada Sadr has managed in the course of his confrontation with the U.S. to build up himself a substantial standing within the Shi'ite body politic, and he now appears to be consolidating that standing by proclaiming himself ready to work with the new government in pursuit of elections. His future depends on his ability to maintain and consolidate his support by acting as much as possible in concert with Sistani and the mainstream. But it's a safe bet that he'll be the first and loudest among the Shi'ites crying foul in the event...
...among them could be brought in and given a stake in a post-Saddam order. Neighboring Arab countries, as well as Coalition partners such as Britain, have also warned that the only way to tamp down the insurgency will be to give the Sunni population, fearful of the Shi'ite majority over which they have long lorded it, a greater stake in the new political order. Should initiatives along these lines be pursued, a split might develop among different components of the insurgency...
...insurgency hope to prevent a new order taking root through a campaign of ongoing violence that keeps the new government off balance, forces it to continue to rely on U.S. forces and thereby potentially alienate Iraqis, and to prevent next year's elections being held and a Shi'ite majority will being expressed. Others may be more inclined to keep open the option of rejoining the mainstream if they perceive political options for defending and advancing their interests. That may be one reason the Interim Government is looking to move quickly to reassemble at least some elements...
...curb or limit his influence at the ballot box. And up in the north, the Kurds are threatening to boycott the poll unless they're guaranteed the minority veto over a new constitution as promised by Bremer - a guarantee Allawi can't give without alienating the most important Shi'ite leaders. Given the security situation, and also the fact that many of the key leaders of the new government have little reason to expect that they'd be returned to power by the voters, the temptation may arise to delay the election. But the security crisis that could be sparked...