Word: japanization
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Dates: during 1990-1999
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...bottom." But the ho-hum reaction of world markets to Brazil's currency collapse shows, says Courtis, "that the emerging-markets crisis at least in this virulent first phase is over." That means the story of 1999 will be written by the core economies--North America, Japan and Europe--and these should keep global growth on course for the rest of the year...
...view expressed by Lipp that debt-fueled consumption and big current account deficits were "a sword of Damocles." Though that danger may not be immediate, Hormats noted, it is probably behind efforts by U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and Deputy Secretary Lawrence Summers to push for Europe and Japan to do more for global economic growth: "I think they see this vulnerability coming down the road, and they want to head it off as much as they...
...economists agreed, however, that finally, the outlook for Japan is up. From a 3% contraction of the economy in 1998, Japan is likely to claw back to zero in 1999, on the way to real growth in 2000. "After being pessimistic about Japan for four or five years," says Courtis, who is based there, "I would give their economic management an A." The government is finally priming the pump in earnest: $550 billion to recapitalize banks, $250 billion to stimulate domestic demand, and "I'll bet you see another $250 billion this year...
...Japan's economy lumbers forward, its lending to Asia should help recovery there, as will its imports of Asian goods. The heft of Japan's economy means every small uptick will help the U.S. export more. "The difference in lost output between -3% growth and 2.5% growth in Japan over 24 months is equal to the GDP of China," says Courtis...
...countries to cut interest rates and taxes. But Hormats cautioned that in the U.S. there's no prospect of easy accord between Clinton and the Republican Congress on cutting taxes or, even harder, deficit spending. Expect a lot of Washington jawboning this year to encourage Europe and Japan to buy American and head off protectionists in Congress. And hope for the best...