Word: joblessness
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...under the centralized control of the Communist Party. But the deeper the scale and pace of reforms, the more potentially volatile their society becomes. To comply with World Trade Organization rules, for example, China will have to open its doors to competition that will leave millions of its citizens jobless in a fast-changing society. So the hard-liners have plenty of material to work with, even as the reformists have to keep the door open to the West. It's that duality that accounts, for example, for the bizarre "catch-and-release" policy towards U.S.-based academics on view...
...Nonetheless, Asia is going to feel a lot of pain. Analysts are talking about an old-fashioned slowdown in which things get steadily worse over a period of many months. Already, Singapore's GDP is shrinking after it grew 9% last year. The jobless ranks in Taiwan are more swollen than they've ever been in history; not coincidentally, the suicide rate has seen a spike too. Unemployment rates are also rising in Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore. Companies everywhere say the carnage will only get worse in the months to come...
...With bankruptcies come unemployment, a much dreaded prospect in Japan, where being jobless is regarded as profoundly shameful. Experts say that with Koizumi's reforms, joblessness could soar to double its current rate in no time. Heizo Takenaka?the academic Koizumi appointed to head up economic policy?is well aware that his boss's political life may hinge on unemployment figures: jobless people make angry voters. That is why, he recently told TIME, reforms must not take longer than two to three years; that is how long his administration figures people are willing to endure the suffering. Takenaka says...
...economic reports are right up Wall Street's alley. Monday, the Commerce Department weighed in with business inventories (too much) - and Tuesday the Fed reports on industrial production for June (not enough). Wednesday comes consumer prices (well-contained - green light for Fed cuts) and Thursday it's weekly jobless claims (hopefully not as bad as last week's 9-year high). Friday, however, is all for the politicians - the Treasury Department reports on federal budget for June. Here's hoping we're still in the black...
...Monday: consumer credit levels. Tuesday: wholesale inventories for May. Thursday: jobless claims figures (watch the monthly rolling average and that 400,000 danger level) and sales figures from national retail chains. Friday: Retail sales. Which will be a big one, as we're all very anxious to see whether consumers (two-thirds of the GDP) are still buying as much stuff as the other third (businesses) need them to. (Early betting: Sure, why not? They've been doing...