Word: justness
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Meanwhile, the models are losing focus, struggling through moves they clearly haven’t learned yet. El-Hage is not impressed. “The show’s one week away,” she scolds. “You should be able to do it on your...
But people’s behavior, clearly enough, is neither rational nor remotely predictable. Neither was the volcanic eruption. Having just attended the inaugural conference of George Soros’s Institute for New Economic Thinking, one thing is clear: The ash cloud over the continent is the perfect metaphor...
Admittedly, it is hard to argue with such a positivist position, particularly when financiers and policymakers are willing and eager to rely on the appearance of mathematical certainty they provide. Certainty is attractive: Investors like companies with steady returns, just like individuals purchase insurance to hedge against the unknown; even...
The second idea further complicates the ideological position of traditional econometricians by borrowing heavily from physicist Werner Heisenberg’s principle of uncertainty. If the observer adds an element of uncertainty by the mere fact of observing, then fully determined prediction is not a matter of how much data...
Considering these essential shortcomings, what is most surprising is that we still trust our models so much. The fact that the mirage of certainty has crept from economics into other disciplines is obvious enough: A famous Harvard government professor often complains that no data-heavy, model-driven graduate student gets...