Word: kamen
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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Changing the world isn't easy. It's a lesson Dean Kamen, the guy who invented the Segway "personal transporter," has learned the hard way. When he unveiled his self-balancing, battery-powered technological marvel (it seems a sin to call it a scooter) in 2001, Kamen predicted that cities would in the future banish cars from their congested hearts, and wildly popular Segways would fill downtown pavements...
...maybe not. That scenario isn't even remotely likely today. And Kamen, who chairs Segway's board, has been forced to adjust his vision. "We didn't realize that although technology moves very quickly, people's mindset changes very slowly," he says. "People are very cautious, especially when it comes to the big issues...
...Transportation, it appears, is one of those biggies. Though ceo James Norrod will say only that Segway has sold tens of thousands of personal transporters (PTs), and that sales are growing 50% annually, it's obvious - just look around - that Kamen's machine hasn't found much traction in the consumer market. Segway has, however, cultivated a few commercial niches to keep Kamen's company and his dreams whole. It has introduced off-road, police and golf models of its transporter, and thanks largely to its lobbying, 44 states now allow the PTs on pavements. Segway just entered the Chinese...
...Toys and niche markets? This is not what Kamen-who still owns DEKA Research & Development Corp., the invention factory where Segway was born-expected from his baby. And he has tempered his Segway spin, though he still asserts that most major cities will ban cars from their downtown districts in 10 to 15 years. "As people become more sensitive to the global environment," he says, "and as energy becomes more expensive, people will decide that Segway is a very attractive alternative for certain specific niches." He concedes that they may well roll along beside a variety of equally clean...
...Kamen, like many great inventors, is an inveterate optimist. "We don't need 50% market penetration," he points out. "The niche market for us is anybody with a set of feet. There are 6 billion of them out there. If 1%-or take 0.1%-of them get Segways, that's still 6 million people...