Word: karzai
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...However, unlike in 2004, Karzai this time faces serious electoral challengers - candidates liked and respected by the U.S., and whom many in Kabul believe have been encouraged by Washington to run. While Karzai remains the frontrunner, chances are growing that his opponents could force him to contest a runoff race in October by denying him the 50% plus one vote needed for a first-round victory. (See pictures of Afghanistan's dangerous Korengal Valley...
Despite its frustrations with Karzai, however, the U.S. is not pinning its hopes on the incumbent being replaced. "Although the election is very important, It would be a mistake to put too much importance on its outcome," suggests Stephen Biddle of the Council on Foreign Relations. "The question of which personality is president may be less important than the structure of governance in Afghanistan. If Karzai were to lose, the next incumbent would face many of the same pressures that Karzai has faced. There are serious structural problem of splintered power and authority, and central government weakness, that would affect...
...legitimate election, and that we'll need another election," Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid, who has written two authoritative books on the Taliban, told the Council on Foreign Relations this week. "The other problem is that there are going to be massive charges of rigging no matter who wins. If Karzai wins, the opposition is going to accuse him of rigging the election. If Karzai does not do well, he'll say his voters in the south, where the Taliban insurgency is strong, were not allowed to come out and vote." (See pictures of the U.S. Marines new offensive in Afghanistan...
Cordesman warns that those looking to cry foul already have plenty of material to work with. "Karzai has spent months trying to exploit traditional ties and allegiances by buying bloc votes from ex-warlords, local leaders, and power brokers," Cordesman noted in emailed comments. "The joke is that he has promised governorships to three times more such leaders than there are provinces. The reality is that Karzai's top running mates are the equivalent of warlords, and he [has] done everything possible to buy the election long before the vote will actually occur. As a result, the real question...
Whatever its outcome, the election is likely to leave the U.S. facing a tricky political environment for its counterinsurgency strategy. "No one doubts that any future Karzai government will still be tied to corruption, favoritism, and power brokers - with links to organized crime, narcotics trafficking, and officials who sometimes have links to the Taliban," says Cordesman. On the other hand, "If Abdullah should win, a man who has never governed or administered any significant body will take over. Just as would be the case with Karzai, Abdullah will then be faced with ministries that lack capacity, are corrupt, that...