Word: kirchners
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...Kirchner, or "Cristina" as she is known in the media and as she is referred to by her fellow Peronists, will formally launch her candidacy at a rally on July 19 in her native city of La Plata. That will end a year of rumor and speculation during which the Kirchners refused to comment on which of the two of them would run for the presidency...
...move is particularly startling because President Kirchner actually leads the First Lady in the most recent polls, at a 55% approval rating, according to one survey, to her 45%. The same polls show that, in any case, either Kirchner would easily defeat the leading opposition candidate, the middle-of-the-road anti-corruption candidate Elisa Carrio of the ARI party, who has only a 12% rating. Kirchner's former economy minister Roberto Lavagna, who is seen by many as having masterminded Argentina's recovery from the economic chaos that preceded Kirchner, has only an 11% chance...
...opposition senses an opportunity too. Mrs. Kirchner's comparatively lower popularity has led them to feel optimistic about forcing a second round of voting if she cannot obtain the necessary percentage to win outright in a first round in the October 28 polls. "It is clear Cristina is the weaker candidate," said Senator Gerardo Morales, the vice-presidential candidate on Lavagna's ticket...
Political analyst Rosendo Fraga says that President Kirchner - an outsider in his own party - feels Cristina has a better chance of recruiting political support from outside traditional Peronist voters: "The electoral role of Cristina is very important because President Kirchner lacks support in the Peronist party structure; furthermore, he actually mistrusts the party structure." The timing appears to be keyed to Peronist setbacks in a number of recent provincial elections. The most resounding was a defeat in the federal capital of Buenos Aires, in which the conservative millionaire businessman and Boca football club president Mauricio Macri won an astounding...
Fraga also feels the president is wary of accusations he has ambitions for a life-long term in office: "Kirchner is also launching his wife's candidacy to show that he doesn't have ambitions to hang on to power indefinitely." Nevertheless, Fraga speculates that Mrs. Kirchner's announced candidacy, if successful, could well allow President Kirchner to run for reelection in 2011, when he hopes such criticism will have abated, the Kirchners then succeeding each other in office on a long-term basis. Says Fraga: "Kirchner has made a tactical retreat, but he has not abandoned his objective...