Word: knowed
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...just can't anticipate. In the realm of the social, we create institutions like global, interconnected markets. By and large when investors are operating with some degree of diversity, when they're thinking about things differently - time horizons, trading strategies - the markets are basically efficient. But what we know is that people episodically coordinate their behavior. They all become optimistic or pessimistic, and that leads to extremes. Even with the best of intentions, you can't anticipate all the things that are going to happen. (See pictures of the top 10 scared stock traders...
...active manager, what makes you think you can do better than others over time? We like to think about four distinct building blocks. One is thinking about capital markets more properly. Sometimes markets are efficient and sometimes they aren't. The insight is knowing what mechanisms lead you from efficiency to inefficiency. The second is being very disciplined in valuation, in figuring out if there are differences between fundamentals and expectations. The third thing is competitive strategy work, being able to apply tools from microeconomics and strategy to figure out which companies are going to do better or worse down...
...analysis suggests that they're actually very similar. "It's analogous to some areas of physics," says Malmgren, "where you might have two fluids with very different densities and viscosities but they ultimately follow the same laws of fluid dynamics." (See 20 things you need to know about Einstein...
...again. "If you do the same thing, in the same way, you're going to get the same result," he says. "We need to break this cycle and we need to do it urgently, otherwise we will have another explosion of violence. What day or when, I don't know. But I know it's coming...
...widely renowned, I know, as an evil, profligate dwarf." - Poking fun at his reputation and his 5-ft., 5-in. height in his autobiography, Roman...