Word: kroeber
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...boost the economy.) Such growth would be unachievable in other economies. But China remains a special mixture of raging capitalism resting on a foundation of state domination. "People who don't follow China on a regular basis can miss some of the underlying drivers of growth," says Arthur Kroeber, a Beijing-based economist, who cites factors such as changing demographics, the adoption of new technology from developed countries and rapid urbanization...
...there will be plenty of pain. Kroeber and others predict a rough next few months. They also concede that a sharp decline in exports will hit China hard, possibly cutting 2.5 percentage points off growth in 2009. There's also the strong likelihood that tens of millions of dollars will disappear into China's bridges to nowhere - or into the pockets of corrupt local officials. Still, if any government can drive change by diktat, it's the Chinese Communist Party. Doomsayer Roubini writes: "The government cannot force corporations to spend or banks to lend." In fact, Beijing can do exactly...
...would launch the country into the most extraordinary burst of economic development the world has ever seen. Outsiders have been predicting that it couldn't last ever since. The financial and economic crisis currently plaguing the globe has lead the whole world into unchartered territory. If the likes of Kroeber and Rothman are right, the one thing that could remain constant in a world where nothing seems fixed is China's ability to surprise us once again...
...broad agreement that while things will be pretty ugly over the next several months, the nearly $600 billion fiscal package announced by Beijing in mid-November, along with a host of other measures, will keep the Chinese economy's head well above water. As Beijing-based economist Arthur Kroeber points out, the same factors that driven China's extraordinary growth will provide a base of GDP growth that could amount to as much as 6 or 7% a year. "People who don't follow China on a regular basis can miss some of the underlying drivers," says Kroeber, who runs...
...Still, Kroeber and others stress that China may choose not to participate in a global bailout because leaders will have their hands full at home. Tougher economic times could affect the country's social stability, meaning leaders will direct their focus inward. "China's resources are strong enough to ensure its own economy can sail through this relatively smoothly," says Kroeber. "But they can't save anyone else's bacon...